Classifying vulnerability to sleep deprivation using baseline measures of psychomotor vigilance.

OBJECTIVES To identify measures derived from baseline psychomotor vigilance task (PVT) performance that can reliably predict vulnerability to sleep deprivation. DESIGN Subjects underwent total sleep deprivation and completed a 10-min PVT every 1-2 h in a controlled laboratory setting. Participants were categorized as vulnerable or resistant to sleep deprivation, based on a median split of lapses that occurred following sleep deprivation. Standard reaction time, drift diffusion model (DDM), and wavelet metrics were derived from PVT response times collected at baseline. A support vector machine model that incorporated maximum relevance and minimum redundancy feature selection and wrapper-based heuristics was used to classify subjects as vulnerable or resistant using rested data. SETTING Two academic sleep laboratories. PARTICIPANTS Independent samples of 135 (69 women, age 18 to 25 y), and 45 (3 women, age 22 to 32 y) healthy adults. INTERVENTIONS In both datasets, DDM measures, number of consecutive reaction times that differ by more than 250 ms, and two wavelet features were selected by the model as features predictive of vulnerability to sleep deprivation. Using the best set of features selected in each dataset, classification accuracy was 77% and 82% using fivefold stratified cross-validation, respectively. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS In both datasets, DDM measures, number of consecutive reaction times that differ by more than 250 ms, and two wavelet features were selected by the model as features predictive of vulnerability to sleep deprivation. Using the best set of features selected in each dataset, classification accuracy was 77% and 82% using fivefold stratified cross-validation, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Despite differences in experimental conditions across studies, drift diffusion model parameters associated reliably with individual differences in performance during total sleep deprivation. These results demonstrate the utility of drift diffusion modeling of baseline performance in estimating vulnerability to psychomotor vigilance decline following sleep deprivation.